Texas Remains Republican; Expected Results from Political Science Poll

The majority of Texans would vote for Republican Greg Abbott for governor if the elections were today, according a poll conducted by Texas Tech’s Earl Survey Research Lab.capitolcropped

The preliminary results also said that voter photo ID laws would not be a problem with many Texas voters, and that more Texans have changed their opinion in favor of same-sex marriage since a year ago.

Texas continues as a red state, according to the results, with 54 percent of those polled saying they would vote for Abbott, while a quarter said they would vote for Democrat candidate Wendy Davis. Six percent were voting independent, and 15 percent were undecided.

Students with the Earl Survey Research Lab surveyed more than 450 registered Texas voters by phone between March 6 and April 3. Forty-one percent of those polled identified as Republicans, 17 percent classified themselves as Democrats, 31 percent said they were independent, and 9 percent claimed a different party altogether.

Mark McKenzie, an associate professor of political science who instructs the class that conducted the survey, said many Texans who were polled identified, unsurprisingly, as Republicans, and if Democrats want to take leadership of the state, they have their work cut out for them.

“Texas remains a conservative state, and the overwhelming majority of citizens consider themselves Republicans,” McKenzie said. “For Democrats to stand a chance of carrying Texas, they either must convince Texans to switch their party loyalties or capture all independent and Democratic voters. There is absolutely no room for error on the part of the Democrats.”

McKenzie also noted that although many Texans identify with the GOP, they are taking on more liberal ideas, like the support of gay marriage.

“In the past, support for gay marriage in this state was below 40 percent,” he said. “Now, we’re closely divided on the issue — 48 percent of Texans think gay marriage should be recognized whereas 47 percent are against. Democrats and Independents strongly support gay marriage, while Republicans are strongly opposed to it.”

McKenzie also said Texas’ controversial voter ID law was not presenting problems for most Texans, according to the survey results. A whopping 97 percent of those polled said they did not have an issue with showing photo identification at the voting booth. Seventy-seven percent believed the voter ID laws prevented fraud.

More than half of Texans also believe illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay within U.S. borders and apply for citizenship, as opposed to less than a quarter of those who say they should leave.

Texas politicians who have recently made headlines also secured approval from those polled, including Sen. Ted Cruz, Sen. John Cornyn, and Gov. Rick Perry.

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has dropped slightly among those polled, tapering to 23 percent. Nationally, his approval rating is at 43 percent, according to Gallup.

The Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare, is largely disapproved of, with 73 percent opposing the healthcare reform.

Three quarters of those polled felt rather discouraged about the future of the country, and believed America was headed in the wrong direction.

According to poll results, Texans also largely approve of the Tea Party movement, with just under half favoring the conservative group.

Many also thought the NSA’s sweeping mass collection of telephone numbers violated rights of privacy more than it was necessary to fight terrorism.

Conducted once every semester, the survey is run by political science majors in the undergraduate research methods class.

About Abbie Arroyos

Investigative Reporter    —    Journalism major, Class of 2014
Abbie comes from Hereford, Texas, where her interest in journalism kindled from reading and discussing the local newspapers with her family every day at dinner. In her final year at Texas Tech, Abbie wants to start a journalism/media relations career in either New York or London, or pursue a graduate degree in Media and Communication.